Syria Exploding
By S P SETH

Syria is in a descending spiral. Whichever way one looks at it, its present and foreseeable future is the stuff of a Greek tragedy on a national and regional scale. Bashar al-Assad and his ruling clique will hang on for a while wreaking more havoc on their unfortunate country and its people. They are, however, unlikely to reclaim their kingdom, even with all the firepower at their disposal. Being challenged in Damascus, with some of the regime’s inner circle killed by the rebels right under its noses, what is left of the Assad regime has lost its credibility.  The Syrian people no longer fear their rulers. The Assad family never had popular legitimacy. They ruled by fear, starting with Hafez al-Assad, the father, and continued under the son, Bashar al-Assad. Now that it is cornered from all sides the Assad regime might fight to the finish with their immense arsenal as is currently being done in Aleppo. The entire country, at times, looks like one large ghost town with many of its buildings destroyed, and people lost or killed in the mêlée. If and when the killing spree from the regime and the rebels ends the reconstruction will be a gigantic task. But we are running ahead of the events.
Syria was stabilized, if that is the right word, after Hafez al-Assad instilled fear into his people by killing thousands in Hams in 1982. It was peace of the grave, though, but it worked. Syria’s minorities, including the ruling Alawites, felt safe as the Muslim Brotherhood, committed to establish an Islamic state, were crushed. With memories of the past oppression and killings still fresh, Syria’s Sunnis, admittedly fragmented but newly energized, are not going to be forgiving of their Alawite rulers and their community. Which is already starting to happen with the captured pro-government militia and army soldiers executed summarily in Aleppo and elsewhere.
It is important to note that the rebels are no freedom fighters and angels, and are prepared to outdo the government in cruelty and violation of human rights when given a chance. They are reportedly starting to receive heavy weaponry from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with the US looking on approvingly as well as providing intelligence and surveillance information. The rebels are hoping to entrench themselves in Aleppo and surrounding areas. In other words, we are looking at a protracted civil war with sectarian and religious overtones. One just have to imagine all the marauding gangs of militia and rebel groups taking law in their own hands and seeking private and sectarian revenge. In other words, it is going to be a long fight with Syria thrown into total chaos.
And the external ramifications of such free-for-all in Syria are even more nightmarish. It is increasingly reported that the rebels in Syria now include Islamic radicals of all sorts, including al-Qaeda, and affiliates from other countries. If extremists penetrate the rebel movement in Syria as is reported, its next-door neighbor, Iraq, will become even more vulnerable to al-Qaeda attacks that are already a staple of its political life. And most of these attacks have a strong sectarian edge targeting Shia suburbs and pilgrims in Iraq.
It is pertinent to note that Bashar al-Assad and his regime are anathema to Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies because of its close links with Iran. Iran, as the standard-bearer of Shia tradition, is perceived to threaten the Sunni kingdoms of Saudi Arabia and its allies in the Gulf Cooperation Council. For instance, the revolt in the majority Shia populated kingdom of Bahrain, crushed with Saudi military backing, is attributed to Iran’s wider design to destabilize Arab kingdoms by fanning trouble among their Shia minorities. In Saudi Arabia, its oil rich eastern province has majority Shia population. The recent unrest there was again seen as part of Iranian trouble making. The eastern province is just across the causeway that links Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. And if Bahrain’s Shia were to be enfranchised as a democratic force, its Sunni kingdom will be history, creating visions of impending danger for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf region. At the same time, the majority-Shia Iraq, with its Shiite government, has close links with Iran. Indeed, some of its prominent leaders were political exiles in Iran during Saddam Hussein’s rule. Therefore, Iran already has considerable influence there.
Syria and Iran have also been consistent supporter of the radical Palestinian movement, Hamas, frowned upon by Saudi Arabia and its fellow monarchs in the Gulf as dangerous precedents and practice for its people. At the same time, Syria is believed to be the link between the radical Hezbollah movement in Lebanon through which Iranian arms and money is funneled. And Hezbollah, the umbrella Shiite movement, has a veto right on political decision-making in Lebanon.
To top it all, Iran’s nuclear ambitions are said to be a grave threat to Saudi Arabia and the region by potentially changing the balance of power, and starting a nuclear race. Coincidentally, both Saudi Arabia and Israel perceive Iran’s nuclear ambitions as threatening their security. At the same time the United States and its European allies are doing everything, and threatening to do more, to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power. In this complex geopolitical web, the fall of the Assad regime, with its close ties to Iran, will help loosen/break the chain that has so many stakeholders worried over the years.
Turkey is another regional actor getting increasingly enmeshed into the Syrian imbroglio, with Syrian refugees pouring in large numbers across the border. While it is keen to get rid of the Bashar regime and doing all it can, it also worries about the nexus between its own restive Kurdish population and Syrian Kurds who are keen to create their own autonomous region out of the ruins of the Syrian dictatorship. It is important to realize that Syria borders Iraq, Turkey, Jordan, Israel and Lebanon. Lebanon, for instance, over the years has been manipulated by the Assad regime as part of its greater Syria ambition. And in its north (Tripoli) there have already been sectarian clashes between its Alawite and the Sunni population.  In other words, all Syria’s neighbors will be sucked into this regional cauldron in a big or small way.
But by the same token, the fall of the Assad regime, brutal though it is and still killing its own people, will create a vacuum in the country with all sorts of elements and militias, including the al-Qaeda, seeking to exploit the situation for their own respective competing and contending agendas. The danger is that Syria might turn into another Afghanistan to make it a veritable hellhole. Therefore, while there is not much hope for the Assad dynasty, Syria’s future, and with it of the region, appears quite gloomy at this point of time.