Arab winter of despair
S P SETH
The Arab Spring is turning into a long winter of
despair. Tunisia, the country where it all started and was making some headway,
is in trouble with the murder of a prominent opposition leader who was a strong
and vocal critic of the country’s Islamist government. Chokri Belaid, head of
the left-wing Democratic Party, was recently shot outside his home. He was a
human rights activist and was reportedly receiving daily threats to his life
for his criticism of the ruling party, al-Nahda, for its tolerance, if not
encouragement, of violence by Islamists. Even though Tunisia’s prime minister
has strongly condemned the murder, the protest rallies against the government
are blaming the ruling party for the violence in the country of which Belaid is
the most prominent political victim. The night before he was killed, Belaid
told Tunisian television, “There are groups inside al-Nahda inciting violence…
all those who oppose al-Nahda become the targets of violence.” He was obviously
not expecting it to happen to him the very next day.
Tunisia, the first Arab country to overthrow its
despotic ruler and that too without much bloodshed, was a trigger as well as a
role model of sorts for other Arab countries. It looks like that might not be
the case any more as Tunisia struggles to make a peaceful transition to
democracy.
Just as in Tunisia, Egypt is also undergoing a continuing
political crisis. There too, the country’s Islamist government is pitted against
liberal/secular forces and minority groups. Add to this the country’s activist
women groups protesting against sexual assaults for participating in the
protests, it would appear that nothing much has really changed in two years
after the revolution that brought down Mubarak.
The protests against President Morsi of the Freedom
and Justice Party, the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, started with
his assumption of emergency powers late last year to rush through the country’s
new constitution with almost all the opposition members absenting the assembly
in protest. It was not a smart move if the Muslim Brotherhood were keen to
create national consensus over a document that would chart the way forward for
a new Egypt emerging out of revolutionary catharsis. Even though the
constitution was passed in a referendum, the voter turnout of about 30 per cent
was pitifully low to make it a credible exercise.
The point is that the concerted attempt by the
Muslim Brotherhood to use the country’s nascent and emerging democratic process
for a power grab, to push its Islamist agenda and to silence the opposition,
will never work by turning almost half of the country in a perpetual mode of
protests. The National Salvation Front of secular, liberal, minorities and
women’s groups that indeed pioneered the revolution against the Mubarak
dictatorship, are refusing to be silenced by Muslim Brotherhood.
The protest rallies in the Tahrir Square and
elsewhere in the country against, what many regard as, usurpation of their
revolution by the Muslim Brotherhood, are a testimony to this. At a time when
the country is in all sorts of troubles, its prime minister has the luxury of
making innate and stupid comments reportedly blaming young mothers of being
responsible for the spread of diarrhea among infants because they don’t take
care of their personal hygiene and don’t keep their breasts clean.
Why have things gone so wrong in Egypt? The simple
answer is that the Muslim Brotherhood has been shifty about shared commitment
to the revolution. They were late in rallying around and even then maintained a
distance of sorts from other protesters against the Mubarak regime. And when
they came around, they sought to assure the revolutionary movement that they
were not in it for the power grab. For instance, the Brotherhood spokesmen
first said that they would only contest 20 per cent of the parliament’s seats,
gradually increasing their share to fighting for the majority of seats.
They had also said they wouldn’t put up a candidate
for the presidential election. Because, as one of their spokesmen reportedly
said, “We want to send a message to every party to make them realize that
Islamists are not seeking to dominate power.” They will be, “Participating, not
dominating.” But they did precisely that with Morsi winning presidency in a
tight contest between a former Mubarak-era prime minister, Shafik, who still
garnered 48.3 per cent against Morsi’s 51.7 per cent. They had also let it be
known that they would collaborate with Christians and secularists. But we know
that they railroaded the assembly into approving their constitution against the
opposition’s wishes.
Even as the secularists were being assured that the
revamped Muslim Brotherhood was much more collaborative, Morsi had emphatically
said that, “I swear before God…, regardless of what is written in the
constitution, Sharia will be applied.” No wonder there is a large trust deficit
about the Brotherhood as far as other parties are concerned. And unless the
Brotherhood takes some cogent and concrete steps to bridge that deficit, they
will continue to be a highly divisive political force thus inviting popular
protests, even turmoil, in the country. With the economy in free fall, and the
country increasingly ungovernable, the romance of the revolution is
degenerating into street brawls and worse.
While Tunisia and Egypt seem to be going backward,
Libya—another country in the orbit of Arab Spring--- doesn’t appear to be
making much headway. It is true that Gaddafi, who ruled the country for nearly
40 years with an iron hand, is now no more and Libya is better for it. It has
held elections and now has a civilian government. But it is also true that the
country’s new civilian government is not terribly effective, which sometimes
make Libya look like a disparate collection of militias with their own agenda
and writ. There is resistance to any kind of central control. At the same time,
some of the militant Islamists and terrorists are keen to turn the country into
an Islamic haven. The country’s border with some of its African neighbours is
highly porous with all sorts of Islamist militants, drug runners and gun
runners further complicating the picture.
The Arab Spring is proving disastrous for Syria,
with a bloody stalemate between the Bashar al-Assad regime and an assorted
collection of rebels; with one group, Jabhat al-Nusra, even branded terrorist
by the United States. The recently formed national alliance of the rebel groups
is not proving any more effective than before. It is still anybody’s guess how
the Syrian tragedy, which has already cost an estimated 70,000 lives, will be
resolved because both sides, the Bashar regime and the rebels, appear
determined to fight it out.
The Arab Spring that started with so much promise and
hope is becoming more like a saga of utmost despair. One good thing, though,
has come out of the sweeping Arab revolution. Which is that people have lost fear of their regimes and will not
submit to arbitrary rule. And that is bound to be good in the future.
Note: This article was first published in the Daily Times.
Contact: sushilpseth@yahoo.com.au
