Israel remains above law

S P SETH

Israel is one of the few countries in the world that can get away with murder. It has evicted, killed and occupied Palestinian lands and still able to pronounce that they are the real victims. Of course, they (the Jews) have been among the most persecuted people in the world, as evidenced by the holocaust perpetrated by Nazi Germany. But to somehow punish the Palestinian people for something they had nothing to do with—the persecution of Jews--- is twisted history. The argument that the present day Israel and the contiguous Palestinian land is traditional Jewish homeland and the Jews have only returned to what had always belonged to them tends to turn logic upside down. By this logic, the Palestinians and Arabs were occupiers of traditional Jewish homeland and by evicting them from it where they have lived for centuries, Israel was simply righting the wrong done to them. Therefore, Israel is within its right to occupy the Palestinian West Bank and East Jerusalem. Much of the world was not convinced of Israel’s twisted logic, and regarded Israel’s expanded system of settlements on Palestinian territory as illegal. But Israel has got away with it because the US vetoed Security Council resolutions in the past that might have resulted in some concrete international action against Israel, such as sanctions of some sorts.

When Barack Obama came to power, he wanted to improve relations with the Islamic world and made this pitch in his 2009 Cairo speech. And the Obama administration followed it up by seeking to find a solution to the Palestinian issue by pushing the two state formulae, with Israel and Palestine living peacefully along each other. Which required, to begin with, a halt to new Israeli settlements, but the Israeli government responded only with more of the same. Later, when John Kerry, became the US secretary of state under the Obama administration, he worked hard to promote a peaceful settlement based on the two state formulae, with Tel Aviv only hating him for his mission as it exposed its real intention of creeping annexation of the West Bank and Jerusalem to frustrate any hope of statehood for Palestine.

As Bob Carr, a former Australian foreign affairs minister has written in a Sydney Morning Herald article, “…”Thirty-five per cent [of new settlements] are now being approved deep in the territory everyone sees as an ultimate Palestinian state.” At the rate the settlement activity is preceding there will be no scope for a viable Palestinian state. Whatever is left or will be left of Palestine will be covered with more observation posts, checkpoints and periodic army raids to test the effectivenes of occupation—in many ways an apartheid state with Palestinian population held to ransom. The Israeli argument that a Palestinian state will be a security hazard has no validity, first, because Israel is the most powerful state in the region and, second, Palestinians are offering a demilitarized state without an army with western peacekeepers to oversee within their borders. As Carr rightly points out, “It is hard to imagine more explicit security guarantees.”

Israel is mad with the Obama administration for not vetoing the recent Security Council resolution declaring the Israeli settlements illegal and allowing it to be adopted by abstaining on it. Indeed, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes that it was done at the behest of the US, regarding it as an act of betrayal. Netanyahu reportedly said at a cabinet meeting that, “From the information that we have, we have no doubt that the Obama administration initiated it, stood behind it, coordinated on the wording and demanded that it be passed.” John Kerry, the US secretary of state denied the Israeli charge of collusion and said that, “The US did not draft or originate this resolution. Nor did we put it forward.” He added, “It was drafted by Egypt… which is one of Israel’s closest friends in the region, in coordination, with the Palestinians and others.” Under pressure from Israel and President-elect Trump, the Egyptians though backed off leaving New Zealand and others to put it up for a vote in the Security Council for adoption. Which was duly done, with the US abstaining. For New Zealand’s principled initiative, Netanyahu threatened Auckland reportedly calling it an act of war. Israel’s arrogance is insufferable, but the international community has lived with it so long and, most likely, will still have to put up with it despite the Security Council resolution.

This is simply because Israel has powerful protectors like the United States. During its eight years, the Obama administration sought to facilitate a diplomatic solution based on a two-state solution. But it didn’t succeed faced with Israel’s intransigence and belligerence and Netanyahu’s open defiance of US efforts, including undisguised contempt for President Obama and secretary of state Kerry. The Obama administration put up with all this because Israel has a powerful political lobby across the board in the US that any administration might cross at its peril. Now that Obama is leaving the presidency, his administration has made a last ditch effort to save Israel from Netanyahu and its ultra right allies. Israel hopes that, over time, their occupation of Palestine will become an accepted and normalized part of international reality.  And they might be right since they are getting away with it so far, though the latest resolution declaring Israeli settlements illegal might suggest that it might not be forever.

But Israel is not worried since they have the unstinted support of the incoming President Donald Trump and his key policy advisers. Trump had urged a veto of the Security Council resolution and in the event that it was adopted, he tweeted for Israel to “stay strong” until his inauguration. Indeed, he mocked the UN as “just a club for people to get together, talk and have a good time.” In other words, the incoming Trump administration might take steps to crimp UN’s role by reducing/withholding its funding. Where Israel is concerned, it is above international law going by the Trump administration’s unquestioned support for it. 

Note: This article first appeared in the Daily Times.

Contact: sushilpseth@yahoo.com.au    

    

Turkey’s dilemma under Erdogan

S P SETH

An interesting recent development about the multifaceted Middle Eastern crisis was the “Moscow Declaration” in which Russia, Turkey and Iran suggested that they could become the guarantors of a Syrian peace deal. That begs the question: what kind of deal it might be? So far, a political solution mooted at different times by the rebel groups/jihadis and supported by the US and its allies have involved the removal of Bashar al-Assad and his coterie as a precondition, though there hasn’t been any clear alternative to what might follow. Russia has indicated in the past that they are not committed to Assad and his regime per se but, in the absence of any clear alternative, the Syrian regime remains the only effective force on the ground to fight extremists and terrorists of all hues. Iran is clearly committed to Assad regime, while Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are aiding and abetting forces fighting to bring down the Syrian regime. Interestingly, the “Moscow Declaration” has been followed by a ceasefire between Damascus and some rebel groups brokered by Russia and Turkey, but Iran, though a signatory to the tripartite declaration, is not in the picture. Which is telling but that is another story. In any case, the ceasefire is already faltering.

Turkey’s activist role as a broker and guarantor needs some explaining. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was, from the beginning of the Syrian crisis in 2011, all for bringing down the Assad regime. Now that it has become a party to the “Moscow Declaration”, it would appear that it might not now be as committed to Assad’s removal as before, because both Moscow and Tehran do not seem to be considering a political deal contingent on that.

Turkey finds itself in a bind because Erdogan’s attempt to revive his country’s role as a successor of sorts to the Ottomans has run into all sorts of problems because the events in the Middle East have developed a momentum and trajectory of their own. And in the meantime, Ankara is now beset with problems of its own which it imagines might require some deft politicking. The Erdogan administration is imagining an existential threat for the government and the country from two sources. First is the Kurds, both inside Turkey and outside, in northern Syria, where they have virtually carved out an autonomous region with Kurdish YPG fighters proving to be the most effective force on the ground against IS. They have operated as US’ virtual ally, supported and backed by it with aerial operations against IS.

Ankara is unhappy with the virtual alliance between the US and Kurdish YPG fighters, as it regards them as terrorists because of their presumed links with Turkey’s Kurdish PKK movement that has been fighting for autonomy for the majority Kurdish populated southeastern region of the country. Ankara fears that an autonomous/independent Kurdish region in northern Syria will be a magnet for its own Kurdish minority. It is trying to deal with it at two levels. First, it has put its Kurdish-majority region under a total security clamp down with almost all Kurds seen as harbouring separatist designs, leading to large scale arrests and shut down of normal civilian life. And this seems to have contributed to some terrorist incidents blamed on the PKK and/or IS.

While Turkey is dealing with its internal Kurdish problem, it is also seeking to confront Kurdish YPG fighters who have carved out an autonomous Kurdish region across the border in Syria. To this end, it has been seeking to convince the US to drop its support of YPG in favour of Turkey undertaking to take up the fight against IS, which it has done in places. At the same time, Turkey’s President Erdogan has told the US emphatically that, “We will not allow the formation of a new [Kurdish] state in northern Syria.” In other words, the US might, at some point, have to choose between Turkey and the Kurdish YPG group in its fight against IS.

Erdogan’s Turkey has been feeling let down/ignored by the Obama administration for all sorts of reasons and is hoping that the incoming Trump administration might be more responsive to its concerns. And he has already made a pitch by highlighting the success of Turkish military action against IS, which Trump regards as the main danger. Erdogan reportedly said that Turkish troops were about to advance to IS’ de facto capital in Raqqa and has suggested joint action with the US against its stronghold but, with the proviso, that the incoming administration would prevent Kurdish forces from participating in such an operation. In other words, Turkey is willing to become the main fighting force against IS, if the US would ditch YPG and the Kurds. At the same time, Erdogan’s dalliance with Moscow is banking on presumed Putin-Trump special relationship with focus on IS as a common enemy.

Another of Erdogan’s problem and paranoia arises from the presumed existential threat from the self-exiled Turkish cleric, Fetthullah Gulen, a former Erdogan ally. His Hizmet movement is believed to be running a parallel administration infiltrating all branches of the state encompassing bureaucracy, police, judiciary and even military. The recent failed military coup to overthrow the Erdogan government was allegedly inspired and engineered by the Gullenists, with their leader Fathullah Gulen somehow doing it all through remote control from his exile in Pennsylvania in the US. Erdogan demanded that Gulen should be handed over to Turkey and since the US authorities weren’t convinced with the evidence from Turkey about his involvement, Ankara came to believe the worst about the US in the matter.

Following the failed coup, the Erdogan administration has gone on a wild hunt to arrest thousands of suspected conspirators in military and across the board in other branches of the administration. Which has evoked considerable criticism in the west of heavy handedness with declaration of emergency to smother all kinds of opposition and criticism of the Erdogan government. And it is designed to institute a virtual Erdogan dictatorship. This is making Erdogan increasingly estranged from the US and its western allies. And he is looking for some leverage from forging a new path. Therefore, when the Russian ambassador was recently shot by an off-duty police man unhappy with Moscow’s Syrian intervention, Erdogan had no qualms about putting the blame fairly and squarely on Gulen’s Hizmet movement, apparently seeking to have Russia as an ally when the US is proving so ‘difficult’. But Moscow has so far not taken Erdogan’s bait by turning the Gulen affair into a new cold war issue. Which shows how desperate Erdogan is becoming, whether he is dealing with the Gullenists and/or the Kurds.  

Note: This article was first published in the Daily Times.

Contact: sushilpseth@yahoo.com.au