Syria: a road to nowhere

S P SETH

The Syrian crisis is going nowhere, with both sides mired in a brutal stalemate. On the other hand, it has the makings of a serious regional crisis. Turkey is deeply involved in it, providing cover and sanctuaries for the rebels. Its forces are on high alert on the Syrian border, and there have been exchange of artillery fire. Turkey is also worried about the linkages between the Kurd populations on both sides, fearing that Syria is stoking up trouble for Turkey’s Kurdish region. It has asked for Patriot missiles from the United States to deal with any threat from Syria, and the US has reportedly agreed.

Israel is not inactive either. It recently fired a warning shot across the ceasefire line between Syria and the occupied Golan Heights after a mortar round from the Syrian side accidentally hit an Israeli position.  

Lebanon is likely to become an alternative battleground, with supporters and opponents of the Assad regime going after each other.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and some of the other Gulf kingdoms are deeply involved, supplying arms and financial help for the rebels. Outside of the region, the US and Western countries are doing all they can, short of putting troops on the ground. In the same way, Russia is supportive of the regime, and would like to see a political solution of the crisis. China is with Russia on this.

Iran is a fervent and active supporter of the Syrian regime. The Syrian crisis is also shaping into a sectarian conflict between the Sunni and Shia kingdoms/regimes, with Saudi Arabia leading the charge to keep Iran out of the region.

When the Syrian uprising erupted early last year, it wasn’t expected to drag on like this. The popular upsurge against Bashar al-Assad’s oppressive regime was supposed to sweep it away in the spirit of the Arab Spring toppling dictators in Tunisia and Egypt. Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi took a little longer, needing considerable help from the US and its allies to overthrow him. But so far, the regime in Syria is still largely intact, even though its control of the country is shrinking.

There are a number of reasons for this, and some of them were spelled out at a recent TV forum of Syrian-Australians here. It was quite surprising to find such an animated group of people of Syrian descent with such strong opposing views on the crisis in their home country. And even more surprising that the Bashar al-Assad’s regime has some strong supporters in far-off Australia, reflecting some solid support back home.

The majority of the participants in the TV forum, reflecting the views back home, branded the regime as barbaric that should be got rid of to save the country and its people. They were frustrated with the lack of international help to speedily consign the Bashar regime into oblivion. The minority view, argued as passionately and with some conviction, condemned the rebellion that seeks to destroy a functioning stable and secular country and plunge it into sectarian warfare to finally install the Muslim Brotherhood in power with all the horrible consequences that might follow. And they also highlighted the danger from the al-Qaeda and other foreign Jihadi elements seeking to hijack the rebellion.

The surprising thing about the Syrian crisis is the tenacity with which the Bashar regime is still around. And this is not simply due to their superior firepower, though that certainly is a major factor. An important reason is that the regime has some solid support among the minorities, who are terrified of the alternative of extremist elements hijacking the revolution for their own internal and external agendas. The images of summary execution by the rebels of Bashar’s captured soldiers are not a pretty picture.

The counter argument that the regime is committing worst atrocities, even though true, is neither here nor there.  If the alternative is as bad or slightly less odious, it is not a choice with much recommendation. The proponents of the Assad regime, at the Australian TV forum, pointed out that, until the rebellion started, the country had a stable and secular government and people, by and large, (unless you were an anti-regime activist) went about their business without harassment and fear. And if the reported anger of many Aleppo residents is anything to go by, many blame the rebels for bringing destruction on their town from the Assad regime’s bombing raids by entering their town to make it their battleground. If the rebels were expecting that the streets and suburbs, with their civilian residents, might provide an effective cover to capture Aleppo, and other towns, they were obviously not counting on the regime’s brutality to hold on to power.

The rebels, and their external supporters, are frustrated by the staying power of the Assad regime. The regime was supposed to crumble under its own brutality by creating divisions and defections in its power base of the government and army. That has happened for sure, but not to the point of bringing down the regime. For this, the most important factor is the loyalty of much of the armed forces. And if that continues, it will require much more than the rebel action to get rid of the Assads.

Another important factor in the regime’s favour is the disunity of the rebel forces that lack a common program and command structure to fight against a much more disciplined and lethal professional army. There have been attempts recently to address this serious problem. A recent conference of most rebel groups in Doha, at Qatar’s initiative, has created a united front with its long-winded name of “National Council of Forces of the Syrian Revolution and Opposition.” This has been recognized by some countries “as the sole representative of the Syrian people and thus as the future provisional government of a democratic Syria”. It might later metamorphose into an interim government. But so far the US and Europe are not rushing into supplying weapons and air support to the new coalition. Doubts still remain that weapons, if supplied, might fall into extremist hands with their own agendas, because these groups are not keen on submitting themselves to unitary control.

The new coalition is certainly a step forward if it can be coalesced into a national resistance movement without distraction from competing and conflicting goals. It is early days yet but so far the brutal stalemate continues with civilians paying the highest price with an estimated cost in human lives of 40,000.    

Note: This article was first published in the Daily Times.