Troubled times ahead for Turkey

S P SETH

It is a sign of troubled times ahead when the leader of a country starts seeing his country in his own image. And that is where Turkey is now with its President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on a course to subvert the country’s system and institutions because, he believes, that they are somehow constraining his power to act as he sees fit to govern the country. Erdogan wants to be the country’s executive president, which, in effect, he already is because he has unfettered control of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Lately, he was unhappy with his prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu as he, at times, seemed to have a different take on some policy issues, and was a bit more in the limelight to Erdogan’s liking, as in the case of Turkey’s deal with EU on the question of refugees. Davutoglu was also not keen on Erdogan usurping all power, thus reducing his prime minister and parliament to a titular role. Davutoglu, therefore, had to go which happened duly as he resigned as prime minister, thus making for a more docile and loyal candidate, Binali Yildirim, transport minister till recently, that Erdogan could tolerate and live with. The new prime minister will also work with greater enthusiasm for an executive presidency.

At the same time as he is seeking to enshrine himself as the country’s executive president, Erdogan has declared an all out war on the country’s Kurdish population in southeast of the country. Kurds are estimated to make up 15 to 20 per cent of the country’s population. In the name of fighting the militant and separatist PKK, almost all the country’s Kurds have become real or potential PKK allies. In other words, any political opening with its Kurdish population has been abandoned in favour of ruthless and relentless security operations against the country’s Kurdish population. As part of this process, the predominantly Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP), which has representation in the parliament, might have its MPs stripped of parliamentary immunity for their alleged association/involvement with PKK.

This will have two important consequences. First: it will be the end of an earlier  tentative experiment by the Erdogan government to work out political accommodation with the country’s sizeable Kurdish population. If and when these Kurdish members of parliament are stripped of immunity and virtually declared terrorists or terrorist sympathizers, the country’s Kurds will be deprived of any political outlet to peacefully vent their grievances and frustrations and tend to be cast as an extension of the PKK network. That might be Erdogan’s strategy to cast them all as anti-national and PKK sympathizers to make security operations against them look valid, at least in the eyes of the country’s majority population. Second: as Kurdish HDP members lose their parliamentary immunity and liable to lose their seats, this should help the ruling AKP to amend the constitution in favour of executive presidency for the country. In any case, if new parliamentary elections are held soon, the security scare in the country from Kurdish ‘insurgency’ should help the ruling AKP to gain the mandatory parliamentary majority to amend the constitution that will make Erdogan the country’s executive president.

While Kurds remain his primary targets, Erdogan is also going after his critics among the mainstream Turkish population. When his erstwhile allies in the Hizmet movement, a quasi-religious and educational movement founded by Fethhullah Gulen, an old and ailing cleric now living in the US, exposed corruption involving government ministers and going as far up as Erdogan’s family, he started a purge of the judiciary, police and bureaucracy said to be manned by Hizmet supporters. So much so that the Gulen-inspired movement  came to be regarded as a threat to national security. And the axe has also fallen on a large chunk of the media critical of President Erdogan by being banned or simply taken over, and the journalists put behind bars. Elsewhere, anyone found  criticizing Erdogan might find himself/herself in jail for insulting the President. There are already many people behind bars for this reason. In other words, Erdogan is Turkey and anyone found to be lacking in respect and loyalty to him is a traitor to the country and should not expect any mercy.

This dangerously ridiculous situation of silencing Erdogan’s critics now has even spread to other countries. Erdogan believes that Turkey’s agreement with the EU to stem the tide of Middle Eastern refugees into Europe has given him an important leverage. Turkey is receiving billions dollars for it, possibly even qualifying for EU membership at some point, as well as visa free travel for Turkish citizens into Europe. And Erdogan intends to use this leverage to stifle any attempt to caricature his image in European media. A satirical sexual imaging of him by a German comic, who might face court under some archaic German law, particularly incensed him. But the satirist in question now has the backing of an important German media conglomerate, which has reproduced the ‘offensive’ language thus making it also liable under the same archaic law. Interestingly though, Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, has also satirized President Erdogan in a poem about his sexuality, but it might be difficult to charge him under British law.

Erdogan apparently thinks that his writ should also run outside Turkey. And with his new perceived leverage from the deal with EU over refugees, he is trying to enforce it. But he might be overrating his power, because Europe, or for that matter, rest of the world, doesn’t share his delusions of grandeur. In any case, the deal with the EU is facing problems as it goes through. Erdogan is in a hurry to get all that is promised under the deal within a short period, which Europe might not be able to deliver at his whim and within the stipulated time. And at home too, his absolutism will, at some point of time, create a counter force of popular reaction and protest that might throw Turkey into chaos. Which will further complicate and worsen an already explosive situation created by the multiple nature of conflict in Iraq and Syria, leading to even more refugees heading to Europe.

But Erdogan is determined to have his own way, as reported in a quote when he was serving as mayor of Istanbul in the 1990s. For him, democracy and its attendant institutions are not sacrosanct. As he said, “Democracy is like a tram—you ride it until you drive at your destination, then you step off.” He certainly is saying true to his old dictum.  

Note: This article first appeared in the Dily Times.