US and Saudi Arabia: A souring relationship

S P SETH

If President Obama’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia was an exercise in fence mending, it didn’t look like it achieved much. It is so because for some time now---indeed under Obama--- the US has been looking to broaden its policy in the Middle East. And Obama has been impressing on its crucial Middle Eastern ally, Saudi Arabia, to explore diplomatic avenues that might help stabilize the region. And as part of this process, an opening with Iran might not be a bad idea. Such advice from the US, directly or indirectly, is anathema to the Saudi kingdom. They consider Iran as their eternal enemy trying to destabilize the region.  Riyadh considers itself the centre around which everything should revolve.

The Middle East was, by and large, a predictable region until rocked by the Arab Spring early in the decade. And the US did nothing to save Egypt’s dictator, Hosni Mubarak, despite all his years of loyal service to the US to maintain and perpetuate an oppressive regional status quo to underpin US’ strategic interests. This was a chilling warning to the Saudi monarchy which, meant in effect, that what happened to Hosni Mubarak could as well happen to them if the Arab Spring got out of control as it looked like at one time. Fortunately for the Saudis, the Arab Spring got derailed and a new military coup in Egypt, under Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, virtually brought back the old order reminiscent of the ‘good’ old days based largely on maintaining status quo. Under Sisi, relations between Saudi Arabia and Egypt are probably even closer, considering that Sisi has made a gift of two Red Sea islands to Saudi Arabia, which created some commotion in Egypt. Not surprising considering that Saudi Arabia is financially underpinning Sisi’s political order, and Sisi’s gesture might be his way of repaying the debt.

But the US, Saudi Arabia’s trusted ally, doesn’t appear as mindful of its strategic centrality in the Middle East as it once was. Indeed, sometimes, it would seem to the Saudis that the US was indeed courting Iran at their expense. Knowing that how much Riyadh was opposed to any nuclear deal with Iran, the US nevertheless went ahead and lifted wide-ranging sanctions on Iran to virtually make it into a normal state from its long-standing pariah status. The Saudis weren’t amused but they had to gulp it in the absence of any viable security alternatives.

And in the case of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime, considered an Iranian proxy, Riyadh was quite confident that Washington would get rid of it as they had, at one time, crossed Obama’s ‘red line’ of using chemical weapons on their people. But Obama still didn’t want to commit necessary military force to do this job. Riyadh is not interested in knowing Obama’s reasoning, however rational it might be from the US viewpoint. The point was that the Obama administration was not prepared to do what suited the Saudis. That has created a wedge, and the Saudis are finding it hard to adjust to the new realities of the situation, and tend to blame it on Obama.

Worse still, there is even serious talk of making Saudi Arabia accountable for its real/alleged links with the 9/11 terrorists, with 15 of 19 hijackers reportedly  being Saudi citizens. Though the 9/11 Commission report exonerated the Saudis of any link, a 28-page excerpt of the voluminous 858-page report was suppressed allegedly to save Riyadh from embarrassment. However, Obama has indicated that he would veto any such legislation if passed by the Congress. But the possibility of court action in the US is quite worrying from the Saudi viewpoint.  On a broader level, the US and Saudi Arabia are still close strategic partners. Under the Obama administration, for instance, the US reportedly sold close to  $100 billion worth of arms to Saudi Arabia, which is more than any of his predecessors.

But it is a changing relationship, and increasingly lacking conviction, based only on lack of viable options, especially on the Saudi side. Riyadh is rattled at all the revived talk and prospective legislation to hold it accountable for its acts of omission and commission, at whatever level, leading to the 9/11 terror attacks. So much so that they have expressed their severe displeasure by threatening to pull out hundreds of billions of dollars from the US economy. All this talk is indicative of suppressed rage and a sense of desperation. Otherwise, such action will probably hurt Saudi Arabia more than the US by seriously devaluing Saudi assets. Another recent thought bubble is this talk of diversifying Saudi economy by reducing its addiction to oil revenue.

Saudis are so annoyed with President Barack Obama that their displeasure was visibly on display when King Salman didn’t turn up to receive him at the airport during his recent visit, even though he did receive his fellow monarchs attending the Gulf Cooperation Council meeting. It must be galling for the Saudi and other Gulf monarchies to be described by Obama reportedly, as “free riders” with no “skin in the game.”

The US President is said to complain that Saudi policies fuel anti-US terror and contribute to chaos in the region. The brutal bombing of Yemen by the Saudis is an example of growing chaos in the region, though the Obama administration cannot wash its hands of this as it is American intelligence and weapons that are doing the job for the Saudis. But the Saudi contribution to spreading the extremist ideology is noticeable from the vast sums they have spent (estimated to be at least 70 billion dollars), and continue to spend, on spreading the Wahhabi brand of Islam, which largely forms the ideological foundation of all the terror groups, including IS. And when these terrorist groups start creating chaos and mayhem, the Saudis start playing favourites. And Riyadh expects the US to bet on their favourites and use its massive military power, including ground troops, to produce the desired results even though the same strategy hasn’t worked in the Afghan and Iraq wars. That would explain Obama’s reference to the Saudis as “free riders” with no “skin in the game”, as they have avoided putting troops on the ground.

The Saudis would hope that this hiccup in their relationship with the US is an Obama phenomenon and they will simply wait him out for six months or so of his remaining term. But I suspect it is not as simple as that.

Note: This article was first published in the Daily Times.