Middle East conundrum

S P SETH

The Middle East remains a complex amalgam of civil wars, sectarian strife, and a battlefield for regional and global rivalry overlaid by the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Often all these factors fuel each other. With the fall of the Ottoman Empire after the First World War (WW1), the British and the French divided much of the Middle East into their virtual territory/kingdoms, thus creating artificial borders and divisions. After the Second World War, these became part of the Cold War between the west and the Soviet Union. And into it was added the newly created state of Israel, with the US and its allies, turning it into it its political and security fortress as well as an advanced outpost in what was considered a volatile region. The imposition of Israel was resented and opposed by the Arabs and led to the 1948 War between the newly created state of Israel and a coalition of Arab states. The Arab coalition was defeated but the region was plunged into perpetual conflict, with Israel expanding its territory and control of Palestine, particularly after the 1967 Six–Day War between Israel and a coalition of Arab states with Israel coming out much stronger from this.

It put an end to the then Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser-led project to create a pan-Arab consciousness transcending national boundaries, of which opposition to the creation of Israel was a central element. There was another Arab-Israeli war in 1973. Despite some spectacular initial advances by Egypt, Israel finally prevailed. Not surprisingly, the US supported Israel in all sorts of ways. Eventually under considerable US persuasion/pressure, the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty was signed in 1979 with Cairo recognizing Israel. It was one of the great game changers in the region with Egypt, the largest and leading Arab country, virtually abandoning the Palestinian cause. Which caused great disappointment and anger for which Egypt’s then President, Anwar Sadat, paid with his life. His successor, Hosni Mubarak, was committed to keeping Egypt out of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israel continued its policy of occupying and expanding its settlements, thus encircling what was left of Palestine, and following it up with military raids and attacks, as if to periodically demonstrate its military and political prowess. The Oslo Accords of 1993, which laid down a peace process for an eventual two states solution, didn’t work as Israel was never serious about a Palestinian state and did everything to sabotage the process.

This short history of the Palestinian issue is an important backdrop to understand the frustrations of the Arab people, also called the Arab street. The Arab street, in a sense, represented the volatility of the region. And it was sought to be tackled with the repressive regimes of dictators like Hosni Mubarak who, in turn, got all the necessary help from the United States and largely followed US regarding the primacy of Israeli interests by downgrading/ignoring the Palestinian question.

Another element of the Middle East conundrum was the region’s monarchies, with Saudi Arabia as the most important. Saudi Arabia was important because it was (and is) the largest producer of oil in the world, with the US becoming increasingly dependent on imports from that source, until only recently when its dependence is lessening. Being the largest producer of oil, Saudi Arabia also played an important role in setting the price of oil internationally. Saudi Arabia’s strategic importance couldn’t be over-emphasized. Indeed, Saudi Arabia also played a significant role in the Cold War by financing and arming Afghan Mujahedeen and Pakistan’s role in it which, in no small degree, contributed to the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan.

And that in turn led to the rise of al Qaeda, with Afghanistan becoming the incubator of radical/extremist Islamic elements from all over the world. The 9/11 terrorist attacks followed, which led to the US-led invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. In all this progression, the repressive regimes of the Middle East, like that of Egypt and the Gulf monarchies, became even more important to the US. The popular frustration and anger with some of the autocratic Arab rulers burst out into the open with the Arab Spring, starting in Tunisia in 2011, which led to the fall of its dictator, Ben Ali. It also brought down Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, led to the overthrow of Libya’s dictator, Muammar Gaddafi, with military help from the west, and started a full-scale insurrection against Bashar-al-Assad regime in Syria. In Saudi Arabia, it led to serious protests in the Shia-majority oil-bearing eastern province, which were crushed brutally. For the rest of its Sunni citizens, the Saudi ruling dynasty bribed them into submission with even more financial goodies. And in Bahrain, where its majority Shia population rose in revolt against the ruling Sunni monarchy, the Saudis and some of its Gulf allies sent armed forces to crush the movement.

Apart from Tunisia where post-Arab Spring political order is still a fragile work in progress, everywhere else it is either chaos, as in Libya, or seemingly endless civil war as in Syria. In Egypt, another military dictator, almost a successor to Hosni Mubarak, has taken over, and the Abdel Fattah el-Sisi regime and Saudi monarchy are becoming blood brothers of sorts, which means a perpetuation of the decades’ old order responsible for the mess in the Middle East, in the first place, and the rise of Islamic terrorism. It is necessary to point out that Saudi Arabia’s patronage and championing of the Wahhabi brand of Islam has been the ideological foundation of both al Qaeda and Islamic State (IS).

With the collapse of the Arab Spring, the last hope of a possible political transition to secular liberal democracy has died down for the foreseeable future. Which, in turn, has further shifted the pendulum to Islamic extremism reflected in its even more severe form of Islamic State. And the resultant refugee crisis from the exodus of displaced and terrorized people from Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East toward Europe, where they are unwelcome and being pushed back, is only compounding the problem. Brutalized and terrorized at home and pushed back from refuge in Europe, some of them at least might fall for the IS’ message.   

 Note: This article first appeared in the Daily Times